INDIA TO SET UP PLANT TO MANUFACTURE F-16 FIGHTERS ? OR F-21?

A DISASTER IN THE MAKING

Some time back (10 February 2017), Lockheed stated that it intended to manufacture the F-16 Block-70/72 aircraft with a local partner in India (Tata), under PM Modi's Make-in-India programme, if the Indian Air Force agreed to purchase the aircraft. Going by the rate at which India manufactures aircraft, the statement of first rollout by 2019 is a chimera. The first aircraft will fly in perhaps 2023 and the prototype will attain FOC in 2025 or so. Thereafter India may sell the 1972-design aircraft to interested buyers. As of today, the only country interested in buying this 1972 model aircraft is Pakistan! Even the USA has terminated its F-16 programme.

The Indian Air Chief is on record as of 04 Oct. 2017 that the IAF is putting up a proposal for single-engined jet fighters as twin-jets are too expensive. The number will depend on how many fronts we will be fighting on, currently assumed as two. At least 112 will be required as the MiG-27 and Jaguars are phased out.

US defence major Lockheed Martin has firmed up its plans to produce the latest version of its iconic F-16 fighter jets only in India under the Make in India programme. Lockheed Martin is currently scouting for land to set up its manufacturing unit. According to sources, it is looking to set up the plant in a State that will have a runway near a port.
                                                  

Under the deal, the company will be manufacturing the latest version of the jets – F-16 Block 70/72 – that will be produced ‘exclusively’ in India. This will be the ‘most advanced’ version and will not be built anywhere else in the world. The F-16 project is a government-to-government deal that will be conducted through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) route. However, it seems Lockheed Martin has no plans to take the 100 per cent foreign direct investment route for the programme. It is likely to co-produce the F-16s in collaboration with the Tata Advanced Systems Ltd., which has been its partner for other defence and aerospace programmes such as the C-130 cargo plane.

India had long been demanding that the F-16s it buys will have to be more advanced than what is sold to neighbouring Pakistan. This is absolute rubbish, and the F-16 was rejected by India in the MMRCA face-off as being too old a design with too many inherent snags, which haven’t been resolved over 40 years. For instance, it is the only Fly-By-Wire aircraft in the world that has minimum speed restrictions. However, with the recent push on India-US defence ties, talks on setting up the F-16 plant in India have steadily progressed. The deal was ‘almost finalised’ when Prime Minister Narendra Modi had visited Washington last year, during Obama’s tenure. What will happen with Trump in the saddle-pun intended-is still to be read in the tea leaves.

The Trump Administration is taking a fresh look at Lockheed's proposal to have a F-16 manufacturing base in India if New Delhi agrees to buy the fighter jets, company officials said. "For several months, we've been working with President Trump's transition and governance teams and leaders in Congress providing information on our many programmes and potential business opportunities--including the proposed sale of F-16 fighter aircraft to India," a Lockheed official said. Lockheed, which is one of the top global manufacturers of fighter jets, said that its officials have briefed the Trump Administration on the current proposal, which was supported by the Obama Administration as part of a broader cooperative dialogue with the Government of India.

"We understand that the Trump Administration will want to take a fresh look at some of these programmes and we stand prepared to support that effort to ensure that any deal of this importance is properly aligned with US policy priorities," the official said. Ultimately, the configuration of any F-16 sale to India will be determined by government-to-government discussions, the Lockheed official noted referring to the fact that all major defence sales needs approval of the US Government. The official said that the company continues to believe that the F-16 is the right aircraft to meet India's fighter aircraft needs and the opportunity to sell F-16 aircraft to India represents a significant opportunity for the US economy. "The selection of the F-16 by India would preserve US jobs at Lockheed Martin and throughout our US supply chain. It could also create opportunities for future aircraft sales and upgrades by keeping F-16 production active," the official said.

According to Lockheed, which has been in India for more than 25 years, this unique F-16 opportunity delivers advanced defence capabilities and strengthens the strategic partnership between the US and India. The F-16 is ready for any challenge, combining innovative structural and capability upgrades, such as the Active Electronically Scanned Array radar with a new avionics architecture. The Block 70 software further enhances capabilities through an advanced datalink, precision GPS navigation and Automatic Ground Collision Avoidance System, the official said.

During the 2016 visit, Modi finalised the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) with the US, which is one of the three crucial foundational agreements that strengthened India-US defence ties. India is also negotiating the remaining two foundational pacts with US. As a result, the F-16 programme of Lockheed Martin received a major thrust, with strengthened  ties. Indian Air Force is in desperate need of modern fighter aircraft as it grapples with an ageing fleet. They have conveniently forgotten that the F-16 is a 1972 design! And that it couldn't cope with well-flown MiG-21s!

India and France have concluded a long-awaited deal that would see the transfer of 36 Dassault Rafale multi-role fighters to India in fly-away condition. Despite lingering questions around pricing, the Rafale deal will help the Indian Air Force fill an important capability starting in 2019, when the first Rafale jet is expected to arrive in India. However, 36 jets still leaves the IAF far short of its sanctioned squadron strength. The Indian Air Force ideally wants to field between 42 and 45 squadrons by the late-2020s and getting there will require additional procurement — especially as much of its existing inventory continues to march toward obsolescence and some of its newer jets, like the Su-30MKI, have faced technical difficulties in recent years as well.

Of course, before we had the 36-jet government-to-government take on the Rafale acquisition, India had the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) tender — once known as the ‘mother of all defence deals.’ Through the MMRCA, India sought to acquire 126 jets, seeking to manufacture 112 within India. Ultimately, liability and quality assurance issues bogged down negotiations with Dassault, leading to the collapse of the MMRCA altogether.

Though the MMRCA is dead, its ghost continues to linger. Reports have persisted throughout 2016 that the Indian Air Force is pushing for a large fighter acquisition, with a significant domestic manufacturing component, in line with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modis ‘Make in India’ initiative.

Reuters reports that Delhi may pursue a 200-to-300-jet deal for single-engine planes in India. If concluded with a single manufacturer, the deal may be India’s largest ever, even dwarfing the original MMRCA. The Indian Air Force may look to fully retire its Soviet-era fighter inventory, helping partly alleviate the maintenance, logistics, and supply costs associated with maintaining a fighter fleet comprised of platforms from several external providers, including Russia, France, the UK and now potentially the United States. 

In addition to helping the IAF get closer to its sanctioned squadron strength, any potential deal that may be in the offing will hinge on technology transfer — something that India missed out on with the evaporation of the MMRCA and the terms of the final Rafale deal. As the MMRCA saga and the two-year negotiation process for the government-to-government Rafale deal demonstrated, getting from planned procurement to a concluded deal may be difficult. It will be the biggest mistake India will make after inducting the MiG-21,besides screwing the IAF.

Major Drawbacks of the F-16:

• The F-16 has the highest accident rate among its generation in the world. It appears low because of sheer numbers of aircraft produced- something like the Rape rate in India which is actually the lowest in the world in %. On the other hand, only one Rafale has been lost so far!

•  It has the highest airframe fracture rate in the world, exceeded only by the Comet, Buccaneer, Lightning, MiG-21 and Concorde, all museum-pieces. In its last five years, the Buccaneer had a laughable 2G limit.The F-16's structural weight has now increased by 3 tonnes, for the same airframe.

• The F-16’s  undercarriage strut replacement rate is the highest in its class.

• Its out-of-base serviceability record is the poorest known in its class, with a 50% MTBF in India.

• Its on-base LRU replacement rate is in excess of 1.0/per sortie. Unlike India, there is no shortage of LRUs in USA.

• It is the only FBW aircraft that has minimum speed limitations. I quote:  " Flight testing has revealed that assaulting multiple limiters at high AOA and low speed can result in an AOA far exceeding the 25° limit, referred to as 'departure'; this causes a deep stall, a near-freefall at 50° to 60° AOA, either upright or inverted. While at a very high AOA, the aircraft's attitude is stable but control surfaces are ineffective; the pitch limiter locks the stabilators at an extreme pitch-up or pitch-down attempting to recover, this can be overridden so the pilot can 'rock' the nose via pitch control to recover." There is no speed problem with the M-2000, the Rafale, the Typhoon & the Gripen.

• It is the only current gen aircraft that is banned from low-level night flying, even with the LANTIRN.

• Its HUD/Avionics suite does not offer an auto-landing system like the M-2000.

• Its HUD does not display engine power management.

• Its canopy has to be jettisoned before ejecting.

• Its combat presence is 40% that of the Rafale.

• It has come a distant second-best to the Typhoon in one-on-one tests.

• Its frontal RCS is the highest in small-sized agile fighters. (The SU-30 is huge, twice the F-16’s size).

• Its heat/IR signature is the highest in its class, due to its GE F110-GE-132 engine. This engine is a monster, delivering over 15 tonnes of thrust, forcing the ac to carry a 1000-L V/T at all times. Even so, combat endurance is low. Interestingly, all take offs are in dry power, load permitting, since its reheat burns off the runway surface.

• It has a speed limit of 700 knots at LL, due intake design, stabiliser design and a difficult M 2.0 at altitude.

• It has the largest frontal Doppler blind zone and beam quarters Doppler notch, to be addressed by its new AESA radar.

India has insisted that any foreign firm awarded the deal will have to collaborate and manufacture in the country with a local partner to boost its drive to build a domestic air production base, an initiative by the world's biggest arms importer to link its defence purchases, which could top $200 billion over a decade, to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "Make in India" pitch. 

Inaugurating the 2017 Bengaluru air show, Indian Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar(since deceased) said no exceptions will be granted to setting up a facility to produce planes in India, and it is up to companies making proposals to get clearance with their governments. "That is my requirement," he said. India, once heavily dependent on arms purchases from Russia, has diversified its purchases in recent years and defence imports from the United States have grown quickly in recent years. India's huge appetite for defence purchases to modernise its armed forces attracted the world's top defence companies to the air show.

Besides manufacturing, India has insisted on transfer of technology as part of its efforts to build a domestic production base and end its dependence on costly defence imports. That was not expected to be a roadblock with the F-16 as American and Indian defence ties have grown in recent years. It is widely believed that U.S.-India defence ties will be marked more by "continuity than disruptive change." From India's standpoint, he says any deal for fighter aircraft will have to be contingent on local manufacturing. "For this government to go back on it and say that we are just going to buy it off the shelf, or go with some screwdriver technology, it is not going to go down well either with their own philosophy or with the services."

The Block 70 aircraft includes Northrop Grumman’s APG-83 active electronically scanned array radar, new avionics, and a greatly improved cockpit that can process data produced by advanced sensors. The aircraft proposed for India will also include conformal fuel tanks. It will be powered by the General Electric F110-GE-132 turbofan with a maximum thrust of 32,500 lbf (144.6 kN, 14,959 Kgf), the highest thrust engine developed for the F-16.

• Empty weight: 18,900 lb (8,570 kg)

• Loaded weight: 26,500 lb (12,000 kg)

• Max. takeoff weight: 42,300 lb (19,200 kg)

• Internal fuel: 7,000 pounds (3,200 kg)

Conformal Fuel Tanks

There is no change in the F-16’s internal fuel carrying capacity of 3,200 Kg/4,000L. Conformal Fuel Tanks (CFTs) are over-the-wing laterally mounted tanks that blend with the aerodynamic spinal configuration of the aircraft. Since nothing can be suspended from them as load, they are rather light. A set of two CFTs that provide a total of 1360 Kg (1,700L) of additional fuel for the F-16 weighs 420 Kg. The extra fuel can significantly extend mission range, time on station or time engaged in combat. This range/combat presence enhancement is very valuable for countries that do not have tankers for aerial refuelling. There are certain penalties, however. Drag and RCS both increase. While 9G turns can still be executed given its monstrous engine, minimum radius turns are affected (~6G, 350-75 kts). Thus the ac will have to operate in a predictable oblique mode. No dogfight will see two ac pulling 9G each, except in transient maneuvres. Low speed high alpha maneuvres were banned earlier.

The overall weight of the aircraft increases by 1,800 Kg; to stay within max T/O limit, ordnance/fuel tank weight has to be reduced by 1,800 Kg. CFTs increase the F-16's payload flexibility. For medium range air- to-surface missions, CFTs obviate wing tanks. This allows an increase in the F-16's primary weapon capacity and flying with two, rather than one, types of large weapons in a balanced configuration. An AAR tanker may change mission dynamics radically.

Armament

A fully armed F-16 Block 70-72 with the incongruous over-wing CFTs

• Guns: 1 × 20 mm (0.787 in) M61A1 Vulcan 6-barrel Rotary cannon, 511 rounds

• Hardpoints: 2 × wing-tip Air-to-air missile launch rails, 6 × under-wing, and 3 × under-fuselage pylon (2 of 3 for sensors) stations with a capacity of Up to 17,000 lb (7,700 kg) of stores.
• In case the F-16 deal fails-which is most unlikely- SAAB is ready in the wings with its Gripen to fully meet all requirements demanded by India.

Years have passed and the world is reeling under the chaos caused by the Covid-19 Corona virus pandemic. The USA has proposed the F-21 as their contender in the 114-aircraft MMRCA deal.

The “F-21” has some advantages over the Block 70. Lockheed’s promotional video shows the fighter with a remarkable ten missiles—eight medium-range, radar-guided AMRAAM missiles plus two AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles.

Lockheed Martin says if F-21 wins the contract, then India will be integrated into the company's global fighter ecosystem, which is a USD 165 billion dollar market. They will not sell this platform and the configuration to anyone else in the world, a significant commitment by Lockheed Martin showing the importance of India and importance of unique requirement India has. It will not only set up a state-of-the-art F-21 manufacturing facility along with the Tata Group but will also help India create an ecosystem for overall growth of the country's defence manufacturing.

F-21 is similar to Lockheed's F-16 Block 70 combat jet, but there are significant differences between the two platforms. F-21 is different in terms of various aspects including its airframe, weapons capability, engine matrix and availability of engine options. The new engine and airframe have 12,000 hours of service life. The jet has a Long-Range Infrared Search and Track (IRST), enabling pilots to detect threats with precision and Triple Missile Launcher Adapters (TMLAs) allowing it to carry 40 per cent more air-to-air weapons.

The aircraft has an AESA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) radar, a modern commercial off-the-shelf (COTS)-based avionics subsystem, the AN/APX-126 Advanced IFF, the Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing System II, CFT (Conformal Fuel Tanks) located overwing; a high-volume, high-speed data bus as well as other features like a Link-16 Theatre Data Link, Sniper Advanced Targeting Pod, advanced weapons, precision GPS navigation, and the Automatic Ground Collision Avoidance System (Auto GCAS).

The Northrop Grumman’s advanced APG-83 AESA radar enables greater detection and tracking ranges, multiple target track (20-plus target tracks), high-resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) maps for all-environment precision strike, interleaved air-to-air and air-to-surface mode operations for improved situational awareness, operational effectiveness and survivability and robust electronic protection for operations in dense radio frequency (RF) environments.

The additional 40 per cent weapons carrying capability is new in F-21, an upgrade over the F-16 Block 70. The electronic warfare system is uniquely developed for India. This fighter’s cockpit has a new large area display. It is a modern cockpit and has a significant piece of ability to synthesise information. These are unique capabilities that are not offered to other countries in the world.

The F-21’s innovative technologies are derived from Lockheed Martin’s F-22 and F-35 – the world’s only two operational 5th Generation fighters. The F-21 is equipped with an Advanced APG-83 Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, which has detection ranges nearly double that of previous mechanically scanned array radars and the ability to track and attack more targets with higher precision. It has an Advanced Electronic Warfare (EW) System, developed uniquely for India that provides enhanced survivability against ground and air threats; Long-Range Infrared Search and Track (IRST), enabling pilots to detect threats without being detected. 

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